January AHMA Confidence Index Shows Current Sales Index Down Slightly to 100, Future Expectations Up Slightly to 229.3
Only 30% report Sales “Below Year-Ago Levels”
The American Hardware Manufacturers Association’s AHMA Home Improvement Industry Confidence Index’s Current Situation Index declined slightly in January to 100 from 112.5 in December (October 2008 = 100), while the Future Expectations Index improved slightly to 229.3 from 225.9 in December.
In comparing current sales levels to year-ago levels, 24 percent of respondents said sales were higher in January versus year-ago levels, down from 27 percent in December. For January, 46 percent reported sales were even, and 30 percent said sales were below year-ago levels, down significantly from 52 percent in December. The “30 percent” response rate for below year-ago levels is the lowest ever recorded in the history of the survey.
Looking forward six months, 61 percent of January respondents said they expect sales to be above current levels, up from 60 percent in December. In January, 26 percent of respondents said they expect sales to be even in six months and 13 percent expect sales to be below current levels.
Looking forward one year, 72 percent of respondents project sales will be higher, up from 71 percent who felt that way in December. Twenty-three percent of January respondents project sales will be even one year from now and six percent project sales will be below current levels.
Other Home Improvement Industry-Related Economic Reports Lackluster
Total sales of home improvement products through retail outlets in the country fell 0.4 percent in December 2009 to $23.343 billion from a revised $23.427 billion in November. December 2009 sales were 5.8 percent below sales levels of December 2008. For all of 2009, sales declined 11.6 percent to $285.751 billion. Total sales of all types of products through retail channels in the country declined 0.3 percent in December from November and were down for all of 2009 by 6.2 percent.
After a rising surge from September through November, existing-home sales fell in December after first-time buyers rushed to complete sales before the original November deadline for the tax credit. However, prices rose from December 2008 and annual sales improved in 2009, according to a report today from the National Association of Realtors. Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15.0 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008. For all of 2009 there were 5,156,000 existing-home sales, which was 4.9 percent higher than the 4,913,000 transactions recorded in 2008, the first annual sales gain since 2005.
Sales of new one-family houses in December 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.6 percent (±14.6%) below the revised November rate of 370,000 and is 8.6 percent (±15.2%) below the December 2008 estimate of 374,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2009 was $221,300; the average sales price was $290,600. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 231,000. This represents a supply of 8.1 months at the current sales rate.
Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 557,000. This is 4.0 percent (±9.3%) below the revised November estimate of 580,000, but is 0.2 percent (±11.5%) above the December 2008 rate of 556,000. Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 456,000; this is 6.9 percent (±8.5%) below the revised November figure of 490,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 92,000. An estimated 553,800 housing units were started in 2009. This is 38.8 percent (±1.4%) below the 2008 figure of 905,500.
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 653,000. This is 10.9 percent (±2.4%) above the revised November rate of 589,000 and is 15.8 percent (±2.9%) above the December 2008 estimate of 564,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 508,000; this is 8.3 percent (±1.2%) above the revised November figure of 469,000. Authorizations of units in building with five units or more were at a rate of 127,000 in December. An estimated 571,600 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2009. This is 36.9 percent (±1.0%) below the 2008 figure of 905,400.
85% of Manufacturers Have a Negative Opinion Of President’s Performance and 81% Think the Scott Brown Election Signals Dissatisfaction with the Administration’s Policies
The January Confidence Index survey asked two supplemental questions of AHMA members:
“President Obama is delivering his first ‘State of the Union’ address this week. After one year, how do you rate the president’s performance?” and “Do you feel the election of Republican Scott Brown in a special election to fill the Massachusetts senate seat of the late Ted Kennedy was a referendum on health reform, and the Obama administration more generally?”
To the first question, on the President’s performance after one year, two percent responded “Positive,” 13 percent responded “Neutral,” and 85 percent responded “Negative.”
On their opinion of the message sent by the Scott Brown election and whether it was a referendum on the Obama administration, 81 percent responded “Yes,” 11 percent responded “Not Sure,” and seven percent responded “No.”
Next month in this space, the February 2010 AHMA Home Improvement Industry Confidence Index will provide you with another timely indication of how your peers perceive the industry’s current situation and future prospects for growth. Please look for our online survey in your e-mail Tuesday, February 23 to participate and share with us your valuable insights. And thanks to all who have been responding to the online survey!
--TVG
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